1:40 pm FII View:
The year 2015 was a disappointment because of weak macroeconomic situation, coupled with delays in the reform process and uncertainty in global markets, says Tushar Pradhan, CIO, HSBC Global Asset Management (India).
However, he believes there are enough reasons to be optimistic about 2016.
Going ahead, Pradhan feels NBFCs are well positioned to benefit from economic growth and sees enough value across the sector. He also says the 7th pay commission will be positive for the auto sector. He also sees urban consumption picking up.
1:30 pm Export Outlook: Industry body Assocham has further lowered its outlook for India’s exports to USD 255-260 billion for 2015-16, which stood at USD 310 billion in the previous fiscal, disagreeing with the government’s claim that there is “no crisis” on the outward shipments front.
Assocham in September this year had forecast the country’s exports to be around USD 265-268 billion. Cumulative value of exports during April-November 2015-16 stood at USD 174.30 billion as against USD 213.77 billion in the same period last year, down 18.46 percent.
Contraction in exports continued for the 12th month in a row in November as outward shipments shrank 24.43 percent to USD 20.01 billion amid a global demand slowdown.
“Given the further decline in the last few months, the chamber is revising its outlook downward, disagreeing with a pre-dominant government view as if there is no big problem in the sector,” Assocham stated.
1:20 pm Oil recovery?: The weak oil market is poised for some recovery in 2016, offering potential upside to the currencies of oil-producing countries, an analyst said.
“The oil market is over supplied, doesn’t look great in the short run, but there is still a recovery story for the second half,” said Dominic Schnider, UBS Wealth Management’s head of commodity and Asia-Pacific forex.
An uptick in oil prices will give some upside to oil currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar, which is also closely linked to a US economy that is showing signs of a pickup, he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, is down 20 percent this year against the US dollar amid a rout in energy prices that sent crude oil prices down about 40 percent so far this year.
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1:00 pm Market Check
Equity benchmarks continued to see positive momentum despite weak Asian cues. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 138.30 points or 0.54 percent to 25977.01 and the 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 42.65 points or 0.54 percent to 7903.70.
The market breadth remained positive as about 1551 shares advanced against 943 declining shares on the BSE.
Metals stocks lost shine with Tata Steel falling 3.5 percent. Hindalco and Vedanta were down 0.5-1 percent.
Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular were down 1-2 percent. Reliance Industries’ subsidiary Reliance Jio rolled out its 4G service for its employees. Commercial launch of Reliance’s 4G service is expected in early 2016 and financial year 2016-17 will be the first full year of commercial operations.
ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and NTPC were top gainers on Sensex, up 2 percent each.
Major Asian equities closed mostly lower on the first day of the final trading week for 2015, with the Japanese market advancing, while the South Korean Kospi fell 1 percent and the Shanghai Composite seeing declines of near 2.6 percent.