Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley is of the view that Indian shares will gain on Thursday morning if US Federal Reserve hikes rates, adding that the rupee too will be stable.
From Indian perspective there are three things, one the RBI had double rate cut at end of Sep and it is first time in the history of India since we opened our doors to the foreign capital flows, that it has moved against the prospective move of Fed and this underpins strong macro stability that India has achieved over the past couple of years on back of lower inflation and therefore higher saving and lower current account deficit. So, the Indian Central Bank is more confident of dealing with Fed event.
In fact, India is more worried about China than Fed hike, says Desai to CNBC-TV18’s Menaka Doshi at AIBI SUMMIT 2015.
Two, the US Fed decision is not that critical because it has already been priced-in by markets but marks a shift with respect to policy in the US, which in turn will mark a shift in pricing of interest rate asset class across the world, says Desai.
Three, according to him the world is very different from what it was 20-30 years — it is aging, has a lot of debt and has got a deflation problem and in context of that Fed rate hike could produce some surprises.
More to come