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See rupee heading to 67.50/$ mark in near term: HDFC Bk

Ashutosh Raina, head of forex trading from HDFC Bank, says rupee may move towards 67.50 per dollar on the back of expected US Federal Reserve interest rate hike

The Indian currency continues to weaken against the dollar with the rupee shutting shop 11 paise lower against the US dollar, which is a 27-month low. 

Ashutosh Raina, head of forex trading from HDFC Bank , says rupee may move towards 67.50 per dollar on the back of expected US Federal Reserve interest rate hike. If Fed hikes rates, then there will be an immediate kneejerk reaction and 67.50 per dollar may be breached.

Below is the verbatim transcript of Ashutosh Raina’s interview with Surabhi Upadyay on CNBC-TV18.

Q: Weak trends persisting and I suppose it is more of a global phenomena given the way that the dollar has been moving higher. What sort of levels are you looking at now?

A: Looking at the current trend, the rupee looks to weaken from the current levels. Maybe, we can move towards 67.50 to the dollar in the days to come. Mainly because of the expected capital outflows on account of the Fed rate hike. However, I think with the intervention from RBI, the losses can be limited.

Q: So, you would not be surprised if we get a Fed rate hike, next week, you expect the rupee to breach 67.50 to the dollar?

A: It is quite possible because there will be an immediate knee-jerk reaction if the Fed rate hike happens and then we will have to see the action from the Central Bank.

Q: The way the market has shaped up in terms of how much demand is actually there from importers and whether you are expecting exporters to come in and sell given these are pretty attractive levels?

A: The levels are attractive, but the sentiment at the moment is negative and with the view that rupee is expected to depreciate from current levels maybe, 0.40-0.50 or 1 to the dollar from the current levels, so everybody will wait for that appropriate level to sell.

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