Mehraboon Irani of Nirmal Bang Securities said the volatility is on the expected lines. He feels the problem is not in the Nifty but in the side market.
Mehraboon Irani of Nirmal Bang Securities said the volatility is on the expected lines. He feels the problem is not in the Nifty but in the side market. “The small cap index has hardly corrected. And that was an enough warning sign because even when the indices were going up, the advance/decline ratio was not very favourable,” he said, adding that Friday’s pain has come from the side market. “There are whole a lot of stocks that have come down from the range of 10 percent to up to 40 percent from the peak levels, while the Nifty has corrected 5-7 percent,” he said.
He however sees no panic in the market. “Even today people are saying buy today sell tomorrow. It depicts that they are positive on a rebound,” he said. Irani expects the current trend (of falling and rising) to continue for up to 3 months as at the end of the day it boils down to only one factor – earnings. He sees earning downgrades post the March quarter results. “Therefore to expect the market will go up in a hurry, would be foolhardy,” he added.
Dilip Bhat of Prabhudas Lilladher said the market will remain a ‘buy on dips’ one for the next two years, and one needs to be absolutely stock-specific. “On a long-term basis, one is fairly upbeat and optimistic that things are going to look northwards. Recovery is something that people are not sure on the economic front. That probably will still come with a lag and may mat get reflected in the earnings gradually. But overall markets still seems to be the northward direction on a longer-term basis,” he said.
This is for first time since February 2014 that Nifty broke its 100 day moving average and closed below that, said Manas Jaiswal of manasjaiswal.com, who feels the overall trend is bearish.
He expects the Bank Nifty to its 200-day moving average, which is placed at 17,200, but looking at Friday’s pattern, he sees a bounce back before that. “Bank Nifty can come up to around 18,300-18,350 but that would be an opportunity to exit from the long position,” he said.