Global oil demand is estimated to have grown by 0.95 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2014, representing an upward revision of 20 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) from the previous month, according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
According to a report by UAE’s official news agency Wam, quoting OPEC MOMR, the adjustment mainly reflects better-than-expected oil demand data from OECD America and China. In 2015, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, following an upward revision of 30 tb/d due to expectations of higher oil requirements in OECD America and Other Asia,” the MOMR said.
Regarding world oil supply, the monthly report said non-OPEC oil supply was estimated to have grown by 1.98 mb/d in 2014, following an upward revision of 260 tb/d from the previous report, driven by higher than expected growth seen at the end of the year. In 2015, it added, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 1.28 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 80 tb/d from the previous report. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to average 6.03 mb/d in 2015, up from 5.83 mb/d in 2014.
In December, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.20 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over the previous month. The OPEC Reference Basket averaged USD 59.46/b in December, following a decline of USD 16.11 or 21 per cent. In annual terms, the Basket averaged USD 96.29/b in 2014, representing a decline of USD 9.58 from the previous year.
ICE Brent in December plunged USD 16.36 to stand at USD 63.27/b, averaging USD 99.45/b for the year. Nymex WTI lost USD 16.52 to stand at USD 59.29/b in December, for a yearly value of USD 92.97/b. The Brent-WTI spread stood at USD 3.98/b,” said the OPEC report.
“World economic growth for 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged from the previous month at 3.2 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. The OECD growth estimate is unchanged at 1.8 per cent for 2014, but the 2015 forecast has been revised to 2.2 per cent from 2.1 per cent. The forecasts for China and India remain unchanged at 7.2 per cent and 5.8 per cent in 2015, respectively, “it said.
On the balance of supply and demand, the report noted that demand for OPEC crude was estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, representing a revision of 0.2 mb/d from the last report. “In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 28.8 mb/d, following a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d”.