Home / Business / Money / Nov IIP may rise to 2.2%, Dec CPI seen at 5.2%

Nov IIP may rise to 2.2%, Dec CPI seen at 5.2%

Industrial output for November is expected to rise to 2.2 percent against a decline of 4.2 percent in October supported by favourable base effect and a pick up in manufacturing, higher working days on a month-on-month basis.

The industrial output for November is expected to rise to 2.2 percent against a decline of 4.2 percent in October supported by favourable base effect and a pick up in manufacturing, higher working days on a month-on-month basis.

It may be recalled that because of Nokia plant shutdown, the manufacturing declined 7.6 percent in the previous month. However, overall the range would be more pertinent because estimates vary all the way from 0.4 percent to a growth of 4.8 percent for the IIP figure.

The core sector for November hit a 5-month high, growing at 6.7 percent as against 6.3 percent (MoM) and 3.2 percent (YoY) on the back of more broad-based growth this time led by coal, petro, cement and electricity. For April to November, it stood at 4.6 percent.

However, economists are not looking at core sector data as closely for a correlation as it did not match up in October. The core showed a growth of 6.3 percent in October, but the IIP eventually shrank to 4.2 percent.

The consumer price inflation for December is estimated to rise to 5.2 percent as against 4.38 percent in November due to higher base effect on a year-on-year basis.

According to estimates, the range for CPI is 4.5 percent to 5.5-5.57 percent this time. The base effect will be because the IIP started softening in December 2013 as oppose to the previous month. For, example IIP was 9.9 percent in December 2013 versus 11.2 percent in November 2013. So, that was a softening that took place.

Similarly, food inflation also will see some amount of base effect veering off so we will see possibly food inflation coming out and seeing the true picture of food inflation this time.

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