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Domestic factors leading to mkt wobbliness: Dimensions

The market finally ended the week with some stability, with the Nifty closing above that 8200 mark, but one cannot simply take away the kind of volatility that was witnessed, which shook out the complacency. Monday started with Nifty hitting a high of closer to 8250 then it dipped all the way, shedding around 300 points during the course of week only to reclaim that mark on Friday.

Discussing the current trend and future outlook, Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Consulting, said though there is lot of comfort on liquidity side, trouble lies on the fundamental side of Indian economy.

He feels even the recovery looks wobbly and numbers belie sense in the market. “So in my view, while globally we could still feel sanguine about the fact that global liquidity flows could remain strong with Japanese and more importantly European Union QE coming in January, I think the problem will start from local end where fundamentals are looking weak,” he said.

Anu Jain, Director-Equities of IIFL Private Wealth Management, feels there’s no real need to take a call on either side of the Nifty in a rush. “I am not ready to short the market till there is something more, which is a global clue. I think it is rangebound, more a time for traders to kind of get in and play because as of the last four-five weeks, there was only a one-way play. Now you can play both sides of the market depending on how the stock is giving you a signal,” she said.

Below is the transcript of Ajay Srivastava and Anu Jain’s interview with Anuj Singhal and Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18.

Anuj: There was quite a bit of volatility this week, the market were dancing to what was happening globally. Do you get a sense that this kind of volatility is going to be the name of the game and the kind of outperformance that India had for the better part of the year, that might be coming to an end or do you think it was just an aberration and the markets will again get back all time highs and start outperforming again?

Srivastava: I think till the QE santa is there, one needn’t worry so much in my view and the fact is that this will keep stepping in as a global markets are concerned. There is a lot of comfort on the liquidity side. The discomfort lies on the fundamental side from the Indian economy because that is where the wobbles are coming from.

Even if you see the recovery, it is wobbly. The numbers belie the sense in the market which was telling us that there were a lot of short covering, a lot of kind of arbitrage buying, a lot of this unconvinced recovery is what I would say what the market was. So in my view, while globally we could still feel sanguine about the fact that global liquidity flows could remain strong with Japanese and more importantly the European union QE coming in January or end January but I think the problem is going to start from the local end where fundamentals are looking weak. You saw the Mid-Year Economic Survey, it is saying it is going to be a challenge for fiscal deficit, the local demand — that is one thing missing and nobody is talking about it — is collapsing and that is the economic advisor says they are going to clamp down expenditure that is exactly the opposite of what the country needs today. So fundamentally as we keep saying that the risk is in the Scorpion’s tail and the tail is the fundamental of the economy. Globally the tail could do a lot of damage.

Anuj: What is your sense, is there risk that the market has just seen a bit of relief rally and it will seek lower levels maybe even complete more than 10 percent correction. So maybe lower than 7,800 on the Nifty not immediately but maybe in January or February?

Srivastava: Index can be managed. Index is managed to the extent that a lot of FIIs want to keep index stock going there but the sense one is getting is that the 60-70 percent of stocks have already seen and may continue to see 10-20 or even 30 percent correction. So while one could base the view on market and on the index, underlying the index almost 800-900 stocks which make the major trading of the day and which people or HNIs are getting invested and so on, that is where the real damage is because that is where the risks are, that is where you have seen what happens to number of stocks which are leveraged and they have been mutilated in the market. The risk is that the broad spectrum of market could see serious corrections in every single wobble and while the whole big market, the indices may still remain looked to be stable and that is where you are going to watch out for what is your stock pick versus trying to play the index.

Reema: Volatility picked up a couple of notches this week. How would you approach the Nifty now, are you also unconvinced with the recovery and therefore your strategy on the Nifty would be to short it at higher levels?

Jain: The fact of the matter remains that Nifty has held on to the 50 day moving average today despite the profit taking, which happened in the last half an hour to 45 minutes. So as long as you held the 8,229 today which was a good sign despite the profit taking which is also a sanguine move because it shows people are not into that crazy mood that it is going to open up 100 points up on a daily basis, you are basically forming a new trading zone. So you have seen that one way ride from Dhanteras 7,800 to 8,600, you went back tested that so that is almost close to those levels and you have pulled back to the more or less the 50 day moving average. You can now trade between a zone, which is more like 8,100-8,140 to 8,350, which could be a few weeks or even a month and you could stabilise on that level. So I don’t think there is any real need to take a call on either side of the Nifty in a rush, you have to see how it is stabilising but the fact that Bank Nifty held on much stronger during the down ride also then break any of the major support lines, Nifty did break a few support lines, which would get us a little tad in uncomfortable but given the way we have closed today, Bank Nifty is holding on to the 10 day moving average which is stronger than the Nifty, you have IT index which gave a slight positive breakout. So I would say that the bias would be flattish to positive. I am not ready to short the market till there is something more, which is a global clue. I think it is a rangebound market, more a time for traders to kind of get in and play because as of last four-five weeks, there was only a one-way play. Now you can play both sides of the market depending on how the stock is giving you a signal.

Reema: Looking ahead on Tuesday, the Parliament session comes to an end, how would you rate the Winter Session?

Srivastava: What do I rate? Nothing happened. That is the point, which I am saying that the wobbles are all domestic, the government had a brilliant chance to unleash a slew of reform measures, to talk up the system and get things moving but it got devolved into all kind of side issues etc which bothers you because the challenges are huge and the government faces the huge challenge. Let there be no mistake. Apart from the rhetoric, the challenge is huge, the Parliament session was wasted completely. That is why I keep saying that the fundamental of the economy are weakening and the economic survey says that very clearly and if we don’t step on it and I think the only segment, which remains comfortable is the bank because RBI is now after the new guidelines on restructuring of the loans has told the banking industry very clearly, evergreening is given to you, now go ahead and evergreen all the loans. So yes, you can buy the Bank Nifty, you can buy the banking stocks with a comfort with the fact that RBI will keep giving them relaxations or recognizing the bad assets. So buy that. But the fundamentals of the economy are weak and the government has got a challenge and that is what I say, this is where the problem lie. The parliament was a waste.

Anuj: This week there was quite a bit of recovery in two stocks, HDFC  and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation ( ONGC ), ONGC in particular which had almost gone in a bear market but this week there was quite a bit of recovery in that one. What is your call on these two stocks?

Jain: ONGC is still in a bear market. I would not be a buyer, there could be a pullback to Rs 360 or maybe Rs 380. I was just looking today that the one-year high is Rs 457, the three months high is Rs 429, the one month high is Rs 400. So the highs are kind of making lower levels. Yes, there is a overhang of an FPO, there are other overhangs but for the stock to move the technical levels would be that it holds on to Rs 380 and that is a distance away. For a pullback traders may trade in and trade out of it but I would not take a positive bias on this stock as of now technically.

HDFC on the other hand is like a little range bound but with a positive bias. So it is at about Rs 1,115, can have a resistance on Rs 1,177, so I think any lower levels around that Rs 1,080-1,100 would be buying points for it. So lower levels on HDFC definitely make a buying point and so one is a buy that HDFC and ONGC is definitely I wouldn’t touch.

Anuj: What is the chance of this market having a pre-Budget rally? 10 days back, there was a call that the Nifty may go to 9,000 ahead of budget, do you get a sense that if global markets stabilise and if something moves on the domestic front, the bulls would still have the upper hand and the market can make a pre-Budget rally, a big move towards 9,000 mark?

Srivastava: The bulls always have upper hand in the market where liquidity is abundant and it is very scary to short the market. So bulls have an upper hand but I would be very surprised if the market ends to go to 9,000 without a serious correction because what are we expecting from the Budget, are we expecting any concessions, are we expecting any major moves from the Budget, I don’t think so.

We all know about the government finances, the review says that all what the government situation is. I think it can happen but I would wager against it to say this market is not going to 9,000 before the budget because the budget expectation is something which government announces perhaps — I am not even sure what it can announce from now in next sixty days to make it go to 9,000, so I am not able to visualise a scenario where there is a serious 10-15 percent move on the basis of expectation coming out of a budget.


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