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Mkt to see 20-25% returns in 2015, banks to benefit: IIFL

After deep cuts seen in last few days, the market opened with a loud roar on Thursday with support from global cues triggered by Fed meeting outcome. The Sensex opened up 396 points and the Nifty added over 100 points.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Nirmal Jain, Chairman, IIFL , said the correction is over for the time being but it will depend on the movement in global markets. He expects market to consolidate with everyone looking at rate increase in the US and feels it is a good time to invest for short-term. According to him, Nifty may find good support at around 8000.

Jain sees 2015 emerging as a good year for the market — with around 20-25 percent returns — backed by positive sentiments like falling crude and an upcycle in earnings. He sees banks as beneficiary to the upmove and likes, auto, IT and pharma space.

Below is the transcript of Nirmal Jain’s interview with Latha Venkatesh & Reema Tendulkar on CNBC-TV18.

Latha: What is the mood you think at the moment the correction is over or do you think we are going to shed a little more?

A: For the time being correction shed should be over but it will depend on events that unfold Russia and the developed world. Russia has been passing through a crisis and one really needs to watch out whether it has impact on other parts of the world. For instances if there are some large European Banks and they have large debt to Russian companies or Russia as such and other get into trouble then that will have another round of impact.

However, market will consolidate because market will now watch out for rate increase in the US which may be advanced. Earlier most investors and analysts were expecting it to happen in the later part of 2015 but whatever indications we get it may happen early. One would like to see the impact of all those things. Having said this there is a long-term fundamental interest in India and that should always make sure that the corrections are short lived and again market reaches new high in every rally. 

So it is very difficult to take a call on a day-to-day or weekly movement of the market. However, if you are an equity investor and can invest with one to three year perspective then still it is a good market to invest.

Reema: We are at the mercy of the crisis in Russia which is an unfolding story. Every day we could get conflicting headlines coming out of Russia. So how does one play? What is the advice to a retail investor say for the next one month. Should they buy today at levels of 8,100 or your advice is that perhaps we could see some correction and 7,800 is also possible on the Nifty and that would throw up an attractive opportunity? They just have a one year time horizon.

A: If you are day-to-day trader then only you are at the mercy of these events. If you are an investor then you must not forget the fundamental principle of equity investing that you should monitor your portfolio on a day-to-day basis. We are invested in good companies, have faith and have patience and just wait.

Nobody can forecast, nobody can predict these events with any accuracy so do not even bother about it. If there is an event which takes the market down if you have more money then invest more or even if you have a temporary market loss just sit on it do not worry about it that is what we advice or investors.

Those who are intra day traders may keep away from the market in these volatile times. I am not an expert on that so I really can not advice them but they can take a call based on the technical levels of the market. At this point in time it looks like that 8,000 or levels around that should be a good support for the market.


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