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Divestment to weigh on ONGC stock in near term: Analysts

A slew of positives led by BJP win in Maharashtra by-polls coupled with diesel deregulation and gas price hike announced over the weekend, have put the markets on a firm footing ahead of Diwali.

The Sensex climbed 321.32 points or 1.23 percent to close at 26429.85 and the Nifty jumped 99.70 points or 1.28 percent to 7879.40. The broader markets rallied too with the BSE Midcap gaining over a percent.

Getting stock-specific, Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics said Exide Industries  would be a distinct underperformer. The company has posted a weak set of earnings in the second quarter.

Ambareesh Baliga advises to hold on to ONGC . He expects gas price hike to add 10 percent to company’s bottomline. “There’s clear visibility of subsidy but I think the issue on divestment will keep the cap on stock in the next 2-3 months. May not be a good buy in the short term,” he said.

Devang Mehta believes the entire oil and gas sector is beneficiary post the reform move. “The diesel deregulation has been done with a price cut, which is an icing on the cake. However one thing can still act as hangover—the FPO,” he said.

Mehta feels the market needs a subsidy sharing mechanism and sees ONGC reaching up to Rs 440-450 mark.

Below is the interview of Sudarshan Sukhani’s with Menaka Doshi & Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.

Menaka: You anticipated this week performance so to speak earlier in the day. What do you have to say about what we finally seen in terms of numbers?

A: The numbers are confirming about the charts are already saying and we have been upbeat on Exide for sometime and then we changed our track, I would say that this is going to be a distinct underperformer and if you have trading positions or even say investing positions which you can get out of this is the time to get out.

Menaka: On whether on the charts as well that’s the same story playing out or would you say you should, may be exist Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited ( BPCL ) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd ( HPCL ) and put your money into Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) as of today?

A: I would have to disagree it is very difficult to say which of them is better. All three stocks have significant upside left. So ONGC independently is an investing idea and even at current levels in the short–term the upside is cap. If you have a longer-term view one year plus and you should have that than at Rs 420 ONGC is fine to be bought into. But that applies to BPCL also I don’t think the upside is capped there. I would say that significantly higher levels are coming.

Menaka: A quick view on Reliance  and how it is done today?

A: Reliance was expected to underperform and that’s ok. So today’s price action is not very unusual. The lows in Reliance are already in place it’s a matter of time when it breaks out. It could be in three months it could be in three years. I don’t have a judgment on that but everyone should have Reliance in their portfolio.

Sonia: Four Index stocks that came out with a very good set of numbers this quarter. What Axis Bank , IndusInd Bank , Ultratech Cement  and Hero Motocorp  any of these charts that look good to go for say you know next couple of days?

A: Among them Ultratech Cement has the best charts in the sense that there was a sharp correction in cement but that was clearly a correction not a beginning of a down trend and it started the up move today. So Ultratech among the four is the best. I have to say that at least today’s price action hasn’t convinced me that this market has completed their correction may be tomorrow it will.

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