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Skymet hails monsoon, Met office waits for it

Private forecaster Skymet Weather Services on Tuesday said monsoon had arrived in India. But India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it was yet to enter the country.

Skymet said the south-west monsoon had come in some parts of south, lashed by rainfall for the last few days.

IMD said on Tuesday, “Conditions are favourable for the start of south-west monsoon over Kerala and its further advance into some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives- Comorin area, some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.”

IMD had said the monsoon was expected to hit Kerala by Thursday. Skymet had said it would hit on May 28.

Skymet said that parts of south had been rain-lashed since May 28. This showed most conditions (set by IMD) had been met for the start of monsoon in Kerala.

IMD in its first forecast had said rainfall in 2014 was expected to be 95 per cent of the long-period average (LPA, an average of 50 years), 89 cm. Rain of 96-104 per cent of LPA is considered normal.

IMD had said there was a 60 per cent chance of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which causes low rain, to impact monsoon.

Skymet said given 2014 was an El Niño year, set methods to indicate the start of monsoon could not be fully relied on.

Skymet said the last two El Niño years 2012 and 2009 saw changes in the starts of monsoon.

“In 2009 the start was nine days before the official date (May 23). It was delayed in 2012 by four days, arriving on June 5. Year 2009 was a drought year, with 27 per cent below-normal rain. Year 2012 saw seven per cent below-normal rain. So, rain from May 28 shows monsoon arrived before the official date of June 1.”

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